Global warming
"Global warming” has been introduced by the scientific community and the
media as the term that encompasses all potential changes in climate that result
from higher average global temperatures. Hundreds of scientists from many
different countries are working to understand global warming and have come to a
consensus on several important aspects. In general, Global warming will produce
far more profound climatic changes than simply a rise in global temperature.
An analysis of temperature records shows that
the Earth has warmed an average of 0.5°C over the past 100 years. This is
consistent with predictions of global warming due to an enhanced greenhouse
effect and increased aerosols. Part of the current global warmth is associated
with the tropical El Nino, without which a record global temperature would
probably not have occurred.
The Earth's climate is the result of
extremely complex interactions among the atmosphere, the oceans, the land
masses, and living organisms, which are all warmed daily by the sun's energy.
This heat would radiate back into space if not for the atmosphere, which relies
on a delicate balance of heat-trapping gases - including water vapor, carbon
dioxide, nitrous oxide, and methane - to act as a natural
"greenhouse," keeping in just the right amount of the sun's energy to
support life.
For the past 150 years, though,
the atmospheric concentrations of these gases, particularly carbon dioxide,
have been rising. As a result, more heat is being trapped than previously,
which in turn is causing the global temperature to rise. Climate scientists
have linked the increased levels of heat-trapping gases in the atmosphere to
human activities, in particular the burning of fossil fuels (coal, oil, and
natural gas for heating and electricity; gasoline for transportation),
deforestation, cattle ranching, and rice farming.
As the Earth's climate is the
result of extremely complex interactions, scientists still cannot predict the
exact impact on the earth's climate of these rising levels of heat-trapping
gases over the next century. The current best estimate is that if carbon
dioxide concentrations double over preindustrial levels, according to the
scientific possible scenarios, an atmospheric doubling of carbon dioxide could
occur as early as 2050.
In 1995, scientists with the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change - the authoritative international
body charged with studying this issue-reached a conclusion in the Second Assessment
Report, which summarizes the current state of scientific knowledge on global
warming, also called climate change.
For the first time ever, the Panel concluded that the observed increase in
global average temperature over the last century "is unlikely to be
entirely natural in origin" and that "the balance of evidence
suggests that there is a discernible human influence on global climate."
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